Myers opposes red-hot Hudson in the desert

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trade deadline pick-up Daniel Hudson can continue a sterling National League debut tonight when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros in the opener of a three-game series at Chase Field.

A 23-year-old from Lynchburg, Va., Hudson was acquired in a late July deal that sent veteran pitcher Edwin Jackson to the Chicago White Sox. He's since made six starts for Arizona, winning four times and allowing three runs or less in each outing.

Hudson was on the mound for seven innings in his last outing on Aug. 28, when he allowed four hits and two runs in the Diamondbacks' 11-3 win at San Francisco. The Old Dominion University product has pitched at least seven in each NL outing.

Overall with Arizona, Hudson has allowed just 30 hits and nine runs in 43 2/3 innings with 42 strikeouts. In three starts with Chicago before the trade, he'd given up 17 hits and 11 runs in just 15 2/3 innings.

Hudson has never faced Houston.

For the Astros, super-consistent righty Brett Myers aims for a 28th straight start in which he's pitched at least six innings. In his first year with Houston, Myers has been a symbol of durability while notching 145 strikeouts and allowing just 174 hits in 185 innings.

He's on pace to surpass 200 innings for the second time in his career and first since 2005, when he logged 215 1/3 innings while going 13-8 with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The former first-round draft pick (12th overall, 1999) won double-digit games five times with the Phillies and reached that mark for Houston in his last start when he allowed six hits in seven scoreless innings of a 4-1 win over the New York Mets.

Myers, who is 4-7 on the road this year, got a no-decision against the Diamondbacks in Houston on May 5, when he was touched for six hits and two runs in seven innings of the Astros' 4-2 victory.

Lifetime against Arizona, he is 2-2 with a save in seven games with a 3.92 earned run average.

On Wednesday in Houston, Hunter Pence hit a three-run homer as part of a four- run fifth inning, as the Astros completed a three-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals with a 5-2 win at Minute Maid Park.

Michael Bourn added a single, RBI and run scored for Houston, which has won nine of its last 11. Carlos Lee chipped in with a sacrifice fly.

Nelson Figueroa (4-2) took the win after throwing five innings. The veteran yielded two runs on six hits, walked three and struck out one. Brandon Lyon worked a perfect ninth inning to record his 11th save of the season.

In Arizona, Brandon Allen belted his first career grand slam in the bottom of the seventh inning, and the Diamondbacks beat San Diego, 5-2, to complete a three-game sweep.

It was quite a 2010 debut for Allen, who was promoted from Triple-A Reno earlier Wednesday, the first day major league rosters could be expanded.

Barry Enright (6-2) gave up two runs and nine hits over seven innings for Arizona, which has won six of its last seven games. The rookie right-hander has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his 12 starts.

Arizona is 3-1 against the Astros this season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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